Moody's sets out trigger points that could spark global recession

Moody's, the world's key financial credit ratings agency, has set out what it sees as the trigger points for what could result in the global economy being sucked in to a global recession.

* it expects the G20 club of rich countries to grow by just 2.6% in 2016 and 2.9% in 2017

* oil prices are not likely to climb above $40 a barrel by the end of 2017 and has downgraded its forecasts to $33 per barrel in 2016 and $37 in 2017, compared to $53 and $60 respectively only three months ago

 *  government budgets will be hit by lower commodity prices and depreciating currencies risking increases to inflation rates

* Brazil's economy is now expected to contract by 3% in 2016 versus its previous prediction of 2%

* and the Russian economy will be down  2.5% pc against its previous call of 1%. 

* the big question, it said, was whether China would see another devaluing of its renminbi currency as it could trigger assets and money being taken out of the country.

* if it did then oil and commodity prices would go lower still which, in turn, would hurt the competitiveness of other emerging market economies.